Eric James Stone

Edmund Schubert, editor of IGMS, has posted a little essay of mine about the writing of “The Robot Sorcerer.”

I’m glad that Edmund posts these essays by the story authors.  One of the reasons I loved reading Isaac Asimov’s short story collection The Early Asimov was because he interspersed the stories with autobiographical information, including how he came to write certain stories. I’m always interested in how writers come up with stories, and I flatter myself that others are interested in how I come up with mine.

My favorite short story I’ve read this year is “26 Monkeys, Also the Abyss” by Kij Johnson.  It was originally published in the July issue of Asimov’s Science Fiction Magazine, but now you can read it on her website.

InterGalactic Medicine Show issue 10 is online, with my story “The Robot Sorcerer.”  I think this is my favorite of my published stories.

I wrote the story at the Odyssey workshop last year (more details about the writing will be posted soon at the IGMS editor’s blog), and it contains an Odyssey 2007 class in-joke–a reference to a movie in the Bloodstained Clover series.

And I have to say that Nick Greenwood’s art for my story is fantastic.  (He’s the same artist who illustrated “Accounting for Dragons.”)

While I didn’t vote for him, I wish him well in doing what is best for our country.

I went and voted for Sarah Palin for Vice President, and had to vote for her running mate, too.  So, if McCain wins Utah by only one vote and wins in the Electoral College because he won Utah, then my vote made the difference.

Of course, the likeliest scenario is that, just as the polls say, Obama will win the election.

Here’s my prediction:

However, I call your attention to this page, which I archived on Election Day 2004.  (I updated it with actual margins and Zogby’s error on some swing states.)  So the polls margins can have errors of up to 7% compared to the final result — and that was without the Bradley Effect.

My prediction above is based off my instincts regarding which way the tossup states will fall.  Going off the Real Clear Politics averages, there are a couple more scenarios I want to point out.

What if the combination of poll bias and Bradley Effect is 6%?  If we give all states where Obama’s margin on RCP is less than that to McCain, here is the result:

Unless there’s a stray Electoral College vote in Maine or Nebraska (where they allocate then by Congressional district), we have a tie.  Then the Presidential election goes to the House of Representatives.  Since the Democrats will control a majority of the state delegations and each state gets one vote, Obama will win.

What if the combination of poll bias and Bradley Effect is 7%?  If we give all states where Obama’s margin on RCP is less than that to McCain, here is the result:

That flips Nevada, and that’s enough to flip the election to McCain.

Obviously, that’s the scenario I’m hoping for, along with less likely ones like McCain wins Pennsylvania.

Please note that I believe the Bradley Effect may be large this year not because of a large amount of racism, but because so many Obama supporters have been saying that opposition to Obama is racist.  That makes people who favor McCain for non-racist reasons less likely to disclose their preference.