Man of the Millennium
Over at Times & Seasons, Adam Greenwood has a post in which he discusses his admiration for George Washington.
That reminded me of this essay I wrote back in 1999, so I figured now was a good time to recycle it:
The English have picked William Shakespeare as England’s “Man of the Millennium.” That started me thinking about who should be picked as “Man of the Millennium” for the entire world?
I decided against scientists and inventors on the basis that, for the most part, if they hadn’t come up with the theory or invention, someone else would have within a relatively short period of time. Support for this assumption comes from the fact that, very often, two people working independently have almost simultaneously discovered the same thing — calculus, for instance. Some people are ahead of their time, but rarely by more than 25-50 years. (Similar reasoning eliminates Columbus — the Portuguese would probably have discovered the Americas before 1550.)
In measuring the significance of the Man of the Millennium’s achievements, the influence on future events must be fairly direct. While it is true that we would probably not have microchips had Gutenberg not printed the Bible, the inventors of the microchip most likely did not look to Gutenberg as their inspiration. And while Bill Gates would probably never have been born had William of Normandy lost the Battle of Hastings, we cannot give credit for the wonders of Windows 98 to William the Conqueror. On the other hand, the influence of Shakespeare in modern American cinema is still fairly direct–not only does he get credit for “William Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet” starring Leonardo DiCaprio, but he also gets partial credit for “West Side Story.”
Now, this may be the result of my Eurocentric bias, but I believe that in this millennium, Europe (and later, European America) was the prime mover of history. As far as I can tell, the native cultures in Africa, Asia, Australia, and the Americas were fairly stagnant for most of the millennium. Sure, there were wars, and great works of art, philosophers, etc., in those places, but Europe started off the millennium in the Dark Ages, possibly less culturally and technologically advanced than China or India, and before the millennium was over had conquered most of the world, spread its culture almost everywhere, and touched the lives of almost every human being. So maybe I’m slighting other cultures, but I’m eliminating from contention all people from non-European cultures.
The achievements of the Man of the Millennium must, to some extent, differ in nature from the achievements of others, not just in size. Despite its lopsided nature, Henry V’s victory at Agincourt was little different in its essentials from any other military victory in the wars between various kingdoms in Europe.
Losers need not apply. There have been people who have made a tremendous impact on history but who were ultimately defeated in their purpose — Napoleon and Hitler, for example. The Man of the Millennium must have a continuing legacy — and one that he intended. King John signed the Magna Carta, a key event in the development of political liberty, but it was not something he really wanted.
I also reject the Time “Man of the Year” standard of “influenced for good or ill.” (Not that I think it makes a difference in my final selection. I just wanted to reject that standard.) I think the Man of the Millennium should have made a positive impact on human history. So Marx is out. (Karl, not Groucho.)
What we are left with is artists, philosophers, and political or military leaders.
I cannot think of another artist who has had as much influence as Shakespeare. So England may have made the proper choice–for England. But I believe that looking beyond England, there are philosophers and leaders who are of more significance than Shakespeare. So we leave the artists aside.
In the significant turning points of history, sometimes there are indispensable men, and sometimes there are not. The Industrial Revolution has no indispensable man — it was the confluence of a great many factors and the actions (or inactions) of any one person made little difference in the ultimate flow of events. But there were two other major revolutions in thought during this millennium, each of which had someone who I believe was indispensible.
The Protestant Reformation broke the dominance of the Catholic Church over the course of Europe’s (and the world’s) history. It led to a freedom of thought which brought about much of what we see in the world around us today. And Martin Luther was indispensible to the Reformation. The Catholic Church had seen its share of schisms in the past, and had survived as the only major religion in Europe. Had Luther not succeeded in breaking the Catholic monopoly on religion, it cannot be said with any certainty that someone else would have succeeded at any time in the future — there are still many countries where the Catholic Church is monolithic.
But much of Luther’s legacy is unintended or indirect. The Lutheran Church itself is hardly a rival to the Catholic Church in size or power. He may have started the Reformation, but he did not do much to set the course it took later.
The other major revolution of the millennium is the American Revolution. Had the American Revolution failed, either during the war or by the failure to establish a workable national government (which would have allowed the British to win the War of 1812 and reconquer the colonies), I think it highly likely that we would be living in a world still dominated by European monarchies. The American Revolution was the wellspring for all other revolutions, good or bad.
Some might say that political philosopher John Locke was the man behind the American Revolution. Maybe without Locke there would have been no American Revolution, or it might have been of a different nature. But while Locke gets at least partial credit for creating the philosophical framework which inspired the American Revolution, he does not get any credit for the success of that revolution.
Filmmaker Ken Burns, who made a biography of Thomas Jefferson, calls Jefferson the “Man of the Millennium.” I disagree. Jefferson was very influential in the first part of the American Revolution, but many people will agree that the true American Revolution was the Constitution of 1789, over which Jefferson had little influence.
There is one man who was indispensable to the American Revolution as a whole. A man without whom the colonies might well have lost the war. A man whose imprimatur was essential for the success of the Constitutional Convention. A man who, had his character been less noble, could have been King George I of the United States of America.
He is my choice for Man of the Millennium: George Washington.








Interesting thoughts. I have a few questions:
How is influence measured? GW comes relatively late in the millenium. Is influence “at the close of the millenium” what matters? (If so, doesn’t your standard, and its directness requirement, strongly favor late-millenium people?). Or is it “influence throughout the millenium”? (Though that might unduly favor early-millenium people).
For example, Gutenberg affects many more people throughout the millenium. Without Gutenberg, there is no Shakespeare, no Locke, no Washington — or at least not as we know them. Similarly, Columbus affects more people. Who else? Luther. Possibly Galileo.
Anyhow, it’s an interesting question.
Kaimi,
I guess I’ll have to write up something about how astonishing it was that we won the Revolutionary War, and how Washington was indispensible to its ultimate success.
Lyle,
Thanks for the invite. I’ll come over and take a look.
I admit the measurement of influence is fuzzy, (and I wrote this five years ago), but I think I was probably going with an estimation of impact on the future.
And I don’t think my standard strongly favored late-millenium people. It may have favored middle-millennium people (people whose work had time to impact large numbers of people without fading into obscurity), but I don’t think so. If the Magna Carta had been more revolutionary and democratic, and King John had willingly turned England into a constitutional parliamentary monarchy, then he would have been a strong contender (and probably would have won, because there would have been no need for a George Washington over 500 years later.)
To deal with your specific examples, though:
Gutenberg’s invention of mass printing via a movable type press did have a huge impact on the world. I would be hard pressed to disagree that it is the most important invention of the last millennium. But if Gutenberg had not invented it, someone else would have, probably with 50 years or so. The printing press had already been invented. Movable type had already been invented.
It’s like saying that if it weren’t for Alexander Graham Bell, we would never have had the telephone. Another inventor, Elisha Gray, independently invented the telephone and even applied for a patent on the same day as Bell.
I dealt with the issue of Columbus in my essay: if he had never existed, the Portuguese would probably have discovered America by 1550.
Galileo, like other scientists and inventors, was eliminated from consideration because everything he discovered would almost certainly have been discovered within a fairly short time even if he had never existed.
Luther is a good choice, but I explained in my essay why I didn’t select him. One of the reasons why he was a potential choice is that had he never existed (or had he failed), it is by no means certain that someone else would have succeeded in causing the Protestant Reformation.
There can be little doubt that, without Washington, the American Revolution would have failed. It barely succeeded with him. And I’ve explained above why the American Revolution was so significant to the world as a whole.
It’s an understandable argument (and we’re dealing with counterfactuals, so there’s no solid answer) but I’m just not sure that Washington’s contribution was unique in a way that Gutenberg’s, etc. was not. I guess I’m just not convinced that, absent Washington, the revolution would have failed. It would have been different, but it seems that if another capable general — Artemus Ward, Horatio Gates, etc — had had to take command, it’s quite possible they would have succeeded as well. (And Washington didn’t really ignite the revolution, so he isn’t indispensable in that regard — he was in the right place at the right time to lead the army, but the people would have revolted anyway). And many other countries that lacked a Washington did just fine in finding capable generals to lead them in revolution.
nice essay. well thought. nice writting also.
feel free to come blog for bush at the mormons4bush site. you are invited to be a poster. :)
I’m going to have to side with Eric James Stone on this one. That Washington won without instituting a tyranny (he spent a good portion of his time as general writing letters to people begging supplies) and didn’t institute one afterwards, and was of such a moral character that his presence made the new government work, is really an unparallelled feat.
I think your idea for eliminating inventors and scientists an interesting one. I’ve seen fascinating counterfactuals and alternate histories with political and military decisions, but I’ve never seen one with a different development of technology. There’s gotta be something out there, though.
Adam, I’ve thought about writing an alternate histor in which it’s Gray Telephone instead of Bell Telephone (in addition to other political changes.)
Harry Turtledove wrote a alternate history novel called The Two Georges, in which Washinton made peace with England and the American colonies got representation in Parliament. The novel takes place in the late 20th century, and the technology has developed along different lines. For example, most air travel is by huge dirigibles. Politically, the whole world is divided among various European empires.