Released: November 02, 2004
Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)

2004 Presidential Election


Electoral Votes:

Bush

213

Kerry

311

Too Close To Call

Nevada (5)

Too Close To Call

Colorado (9)


Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


Here's how we got there...

2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:
George Bush (Electoral Vote)
UT
5
KS
6
WY
3
MS
6
ID
4
SC
8
AK
3
IN
11
NE
5
KY
8
ND
3
AL
9
MT
3
GA
15
SD
3
LA
9
OK
7
TX
34
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)
ME
4
MD
10
VT
3
CT
7
IL
21
HI
4
RI
4
NY
31
DE
3
MA
12
NJ
15
DC
3
CA
55


Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:


2000

2004
Our Call

Bush Electoral Votes

Kerry Electoral Votes


%Margin

%Margin

Arizona (10)*

Bush + 6.28%

Bush 6%
ACTUAL: 9%
Zogby off by 3%

10

-

Arkansas (6)*

Bush + 5.44%

Bush 3%
ACTUAL: 9%
Zogby off by 6%

6

-

Colorado (9)

Bush + 8.36%

Too Close To Call
ACTUAL: 7%
Zogby off by 7%

-

-

Florida (27)

Bush + 0.01%

Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry

ACTUAL: Bush 5%
Zogby off by 5.1%

-

27

Iowa (7)

Gore + 0.31%

Kerry 5%
ACTUAL: Bush 1%
Zogby off by 6%

-

7

Michigan (17)

Gore + 5.13%

Kerry 6%
ACTUAL: 3%
Zogby off by 3%

-

17

Minnesota (10)

Gore + 2.4%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Missouri (11)*

Bush + 3.34%

Bush 3%

11

-

Nevada (5)

Bush + 3.55%

Too Close To Call

-

-

New Hampshire (4) * 

Bush + 1.27%

Kerry 5%

-

4

New Mexico (5)

Gore + 0.06%

Kerry 3%

-

5

North Carolina (15)*

Bush + 12.83%

Bush 3%

15

-

Oregon (7)*

Gore + 0.44%

Kerry 10%

-

7

Ohio (20)

Bush + 3.51%

Bush 2%
Trending Kerry

-

20

Pennsylvania (21)

Gore + 4.17%

Trending Kerry

-

21

Tennessee (11)*

Bush + 3.86%

Bush 4%

11

-

Virginia (13)*
Bush + 7.00%
Bush
13
-

Washington (11)*

Gore + 5.58%

Kerry 11%

-

11

West Virginia (5)*

Bush + 6.32%

Bush 4%

5

-

Wisconsin (10)

Gore + 0.22%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Battleground State Totals
71
139
Current Grand Total:
213
311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.

(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST)

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